...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible today over a part of the central and southern Plains and from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
...TX/OK/KS...
A large upper trough is present today over the western states, with a vigorous shortwave trough rotating northeastward into western NM. The large-scale lift and midlevel height falls associated with this feature will overspread parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon. Meanwhile, a very moist and unstable air mass has become
established across much of the TX Panhandle, with dewpoints in the upper 60s over much of the area. Visible satellite imagery suggests the potential for relatively strong afternoon heating over the region, setting the stage for intense thunderstorm development.
Present indications are that elevated convection capable of large hail will remain possible along and north of the surface boundaries over the northern TX Panhandle, OK Panhandle and southwest KS. These storms would primarily pose a hail risk through the day. Please refer to MCD #751 for further details.
Intense surface-based initiation is expected along the dryline over the western TX Panhandle by mid-afternoon, with supercells likely. These storms will track north-northeastward across the ENH and MDT risk areas and will be capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. It is unclear how long the storms will maintain discretely supercell mode, with all model solutions tending toward quasi-linear modes during the evening as storms track into northwest OK and southern KS. This will increase the risk of damaging winds.
Over south-central KS, rapid recovery of the surface air mass will provide a favorable zone for thunderstorm development and maintenance this afternoon and evening. A few supercells are possible with an inherent tornado/large hail threat. But perhaps more likely are bowing structures capable of damaging winds. This activity may persist much of the evening and spread eastward into parts of northwest MO before weakening.
...NY into Mid Atlantic Region... A fast moving line of thunderstorms is tracking across central PA, and extends southwestward into WV. This line may intensify this afternoon as it approaches the east coast, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #750 for further details. In the wake of the first line, multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of western/central PA into northern WV. Fast flow aloft and sufficient time to heat will result in a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. These storms will track eastward and approach the east coast by dark. While damaging winds are the main threat, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
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