This upcoming winter may be warmer overall, but government forecasters are advising that there may be some "large swings" due to volatile weather patterns.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its winter outlook that warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter, with a wetter-than-normal season from December through February across the northern parts of the country. "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter," according to the outlook. But forecasters admitted Thursday that global climate patterns that typically influence winter weather patterns are weak this year, leading to complicated forecasts. This winter may be warmer, but more volatile, according to forecasters. (Gary Hershorn) "I would say that this is not one of our most confident forecasts," Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said on a conference call with reporters. WINTER TO FEATURE 'POLAR COASTER' MIX OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES, SNOW: FARMERS' ALMANAC Due to the lack of an El Niño or La Niña, there's a lack of strong climate patterns that are leading to neutral conditions expected to last until the spring. “Without either El Niño or La Niña conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” Halpert said. Forecasters said that short-term climate patterns limit the predictability to a couple of weeks, which Halpert said is why NOAA is relying more heavily on computer model forecasts this year. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall should be expected, according to the NOAA. (Gary Hershorn) Government forecasters last year said to expect a warmer than normal winter, which turned out to be wrong as the "Polar Vortex" brought brutal cold to the Midwest and Northeast in late January into February. Halpert told reporters that since the mid-1990's government-issued temperature outlooks are generally 30 to 35 percent more accurate on temperature than random guesses. Forecasters are confident, however, that the weather will be warmer and wetter in Alaska and Hawaii, according to Halpert. There is also a "modest" probability for a warmer winter in large parts of the U.S., from the West across the South to the East Coast. A large swath of the U.S. may experience a warmer-than-average winter, according to forecasters. (NOAA) "The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures," according to forecasters. DALLAS STARS' TYLER SEGUIN LOSES HOME IN TORNADO, SAYS IT'S AN 'EXTREMELY SAD SIGHT TO SEE' In terms of precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are likely in Alaska and Hawaii, in addition to parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Above
Winter likely to be warmer but have 'large swings' in temperatures and precipitation, NOAA says
This upcoming winter may be warmer overall, but government forecasters are advising that there may be some "large swings" due to volatile weather patterns.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its winter outlook that warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter, with a wetter-than-normal season from December through February across the northern parts of the country. "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter," according to the outlook. But forecasters admitted Thursday that global climate patterns that typically influence winter weather patterns are weak this year, leading to complicated forecasts. This winter may be warmer, but more volatile, according to forecasters. (Gary Hershorn) "I would say that this is not one of our most confident forecasts," Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said on a conference call with reporters. WINTER TO FEATURE 'POLAR COASTER' MIX OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES, SNOW: FARMERS' ALMANAC Due to the lack of an El Niño or La Niña, there's a lack of strong climate patterns that are leading to neutral conditions expected to last until the spring. “Without either El Niño or La Niña conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” Halpert said. Forecasters said that short-term climate patterns limit the predictability to a couple of weeks, which Halpert said is why NOAA is relying more heavily on computer model forecasts this year. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall should be expected, according to the NOAA. (Gary Hershorn) Government forecasters last year said to expect a warmer than normal winter, which turned out to be wrong as the "Polar Vortex" brought brutal cold to the Midwest and Northeast in late January into February. Halpert told reporters that since the mid-1990's government-issued temperature outlooks are generally 30 to 35 percent more accurate on temperature than random guesses. Forecasters are confident, however, that the weather will be warmer and wetter in Alaska and Hawaii, according to Halpert. There is also a "modest" probability for a warmer winter in large parts of the U.S., from the West across the South to the East Coast. A large swath of the U.S. may experience a warmer-than-average winter, according to forecasters. (NOAA) "The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures," according to forecasters. DALLAS STARS' TYLER SEGUIN LOSES HOME IN TORNADO, SAYS IT'S AN 'EXTREMELY SAD SIGHT TO SEE' In terms of precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are likely in Alaska and Hawaii, in addition to parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Above
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