The 6th and final webinar of the Oasis Hub Community Webinar series was brought to you by Dr. Michel Wortmann, Post-doctoral researcher at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Dr.-Ing. Kai Schröter, Hydrologist from GFZ-Potsdam & Jelena Radonić, Associate Professor at the University of Novi Sad. Topic: Using multi-hazard, multi-risk catastrophe models to assess the flood risk under current and future climate change – examples from the Danube River basin
A warmer climate is expected to lead to more extreme precipitation and locked-in weather patterns, generally resulting in a greater likelihood of flooding around the world. Flood risk assessments for the insurance sector and communities typically rely on long-term, historical observations and thus often fail to capture the increased risk under the current, warmer climate. We will explore how this may be overcome and how the open-source Oasis Loss Modelling Framework enables the use of cutting-edge scientific models in (re)insurance companies. As an example, the Future Danube Model (FDM) will be discussed, a catastrophe model compliant with both insurance industry standards and climate science best practices. In its core, it provides risk and damage information for fluvial flooding for the entire Danube Basin and pluvial flooding for selected cities in the Danube Basin for the past, present and future. A unique feature is the use of climate change scenarios to provide risk information for the present (2006-2035) and two future climate periods (2020-2049, 2070-2099), allowing analyses of risk with regards to the baseline period (1970-1999). The model was co-designed and co-validated in collaboration by the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), the German Centre for Geoscience (GFZ) and the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with partners from the insurance industry.
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