#DiscoverInside IRIAF has shown keen interest in the purchase of 40 JF-17 Thunder Block Two, and 160+ Block Three aircraft from Pakistan. This substantial order has the potential to generate revenues exceeding $20 billion during the 20 year life cycle of the aircraft, and is currently the largest aircraft order outside of the western hemisphere. Iran had earlier unsuccessfully tried purchasing these aircraft directly from China during it's official unveiling in a 2003 Chinese air show.
The JF-17 began its life modestly at the cusp of third-fourth generation aircraft technology in 2010 after only seven years of development. In comparison, Indian hal tejas program is now in it's 33rd year of development, and it's first squadron has finally been made operational. There are two reasons behind it'd Iranian request. Firstly, the strategic alliance between India and Iran which began in early 2000′s is beginning to unravel due to the impending US military withdrawl from Afghanistan. The US is now in the process of dismantling it's wartime alliances and understandings. The second reason behind Iran's interest in the JF-17 program is that it is the only successful low cost combat aircraft program in the developing world. Pakistan is a country that is in dire need of foreign exchange and, under normal circumstances, would even be willing to barter the aircraft against supply of oil from Iran.
Based on these two significant developments, Iran has finally approached Pakistan directly for supply of these aircraft in 2019. This change in Iranian policy is tied to Change in US policy under President Trump, which also led to the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. Mattis was the prime mover in the increasing anti-Pakistani Indian involvement Afghan politics that began with the US invasion of Afghanistan under President Bush Jr. In continuation of this policy, Mr. Mattis was a staunch supporter of this policy, and had recently managed a waiver for India to construct Chabahar port in Iran as well as sale of Iranian oil to India and several other countries despite US embargo. It seems unlikely that Mr. Trump will continue those waivers past the US withdrawal period in Afghanistan. He has clearly mentioned that he does not wish to continue spending 45 billion dollars per year for maintaining peace in Afghanistan.
It is obvious that a quiet yet tectonic shift in American foreign policy is taking place. This will be the first time after the end of WW2, that the US is focusing on creating an Asia centric foreign policy. After the current US embargo on Iran begins to tighten, the Iranian government will try to reduce it's tight alignment with India, and is looking to rapidly improve working relations with Pakistan, China and Russia for supply of Iranian oil. Meanwhile, the US government will tighten the choke-hold on Iranian oil exports to India and other countries in the region once it withdraws from Afghanistan completely.
The overt Iranian support of India in it's efforts to curtail Pakistan's geo-political goals is also a reason for a lukewarm Iran-Pakistan relationship since almost two decades. India is in the process of developing the Chabahar seaport in Iran at the cost of 15 billion dollars. This port is located only 110 kilometers away from Gwadar seaport in Pakistan. India intends to reduce Pakistan's influence in the landlocked Afghanistan and cut off Chinese linkage to Pakistan through Afghanistan by providing Afghanistan with a stable supply route of Indian commodities through Iran, and thereby restrict Pakistan-China sphere of influence in the region.
Saudi Arabia, a close ally of Pakistan since mid 1970′s has a history of strained relations with Iran after the Islamic revolution, which is partially responsible for poor bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran. Since that time, both countries have been working hard to subvert and overthrow each other's regime. Iran has consistently asked Pakistan to stop Saudi backed terrorists from penetrating into Iran through the porous border in Balochistan province. This is an issue which Pakistan has failed to address. With these additional geopolitical complexities, it is is even more unlikely that Pakistan and Iran will agree to this terms and conditions of this proposed deal.
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